Joe Biden is expected to outline his vision of Washington’s Latin America policy at the next Summit of the Americas, to be held in the United States in April 2021. However, the contours of the new administration’s Western Hemisphere policies have already become visible in the first month of Biden’s presidency.
Although the Biden administration stated that it would reverse Donald Trump’s foreign policies, the White House has made it clear that it recognises the self-declared interim president, Juan Guaido, in Venezuela and is not planning to negotiate with President Nicolas Maduro in the near future. At the same time, Biden has vowed to invest $4 billion in Central America and stopped the construction of the border wall between the US and Mexico, something that received high praise from Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
What Can Maduro, Bolsonaro and Fernandez Expect From Biden?
For this year’s Summit of the Americas, the new US administration will have the opportunity to express how it will approach Latin America over the next four years, which could facilitate the mapping of future scenarios and trends, according to Cabañas.
Still, the analyst offered a glimpse into how the new administration’s Latin American policies will look with regard to some of the continent’s states.
While under Trump, Venezuela underwent an attempted coup and a botched naval raid, “recent events seem to indicate that the policy of pressure on Venezuela will continue in general, beyond some tactical adjustments”, the analyst points out.
Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, sometimes referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics”, doesn’t have many options due to the country’s internal economic difficulties and swirling pandemic, according to Cabañas.
No matter how strong Bolsonaro’s support for Trump is, “the current Brazilian leadership lacks a sense of autonomy and multipolar, its geopolitical codes are in the North”, notes the Argentine analyst.
“Bolsonaro’s Brazil will remain aligned with Washington, but perhaps less ostentatious than before”, he remarks.
In contrast, it appears that the Argentine centre-left government is looking at Biden’s presidency with more optimism, hoping to improve bilateral relations.
”Argentina wishes to boost relations and see that multilateral organisms are respected, also hoping that there is no betting on the disunity of our countries, as in the previous stage”, Argentine President Alberto Fernandez wrote to Joe Biden, after the latter’s inauguration. Furthermore, Buenos Aires needs Washington’s assistance in restructuring Argentina’s $45 billion debt.
Wearing a mas to curb the spread of COVID-19, Argentine President Alberto Fernandez arrives for a press conference to announce that Argentina and Mexico will produce and distribute an experimental coronavirus vaccine, at the Olivos Presidential Residence in Olivos, Buenos Aires, Wednesday, August 12, 2020.
Monroe Doctrine Isn’t Going Anywhere
Another obstacle in the way of warmer US-Argentine relations: Buenos Aires continues to maintain close ties with China, something that Washington is unlikely to tolerate in what it has long considered to be its “backyard”, according to the analyst.
China’s role in the region has increased significantly amid the coronavirus pandemic, Cabañas underscores. “In the midst of a recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, Argentina will have even less reasons to distance itself from one of its main economic partners, when foreign investment, international trade revenues and foreign aid are more valuable than ever”, he stresses.
Washington’s Monroe Doctrine still plays an important role in US policies, and left-leaning governments should not delude themselves into thinking that Biden’s presidency will change this trend, according to the analyst. Bolivia’s ex-president, Evo Morales, summarised this in November 2020, predicting that nothing would change for the Latin American state if “perhaps, more moderate” Joe Biden takes the reins of US politics.
“Evo Morales’ position on US foreign policy is quite precise, Washington’s strategic objectives are the same, and the only change is the focus on how to achieve them”, says Gonzalez Cabañas.
The geopolitical analyst sees a silver lining in the form of a new stage of “thaw” with Cuba, he says, referring to the Obama era effort to mend fences with the “island of freedom”.
Sourse: sputniknews.com
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