On 5 January, two Senate runoffs kicked off in Georgia, a long-time Republican stronghold. Political scientists from the state have explained why the January elections are so important and how Georgia’s demography may influence the outcome of the races.
The two Georgia Senate runoffs will determine which party controls the US Senate, which currently stands at 50 Republicans and 48 Democrats. None of the senatorial candidates managed to secure the needed 50% or more in November. Democrat Raphael Warnock outperformed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler by 7%, while GOP Sen. David Perdue ran ahead of his contender Jon Ossoff by just 1.8%.
Should the Democrats win both seats, then the party will take over the upper chamber, given that Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will break any ties and tip the balance in the Dems’ favour. However, if the GOP wins just one of the races, the Republicans will continue to maintain control of the Senate.
Why Senate Race is Crucial for Both Parties
However, it would be equally important if the Republicans come out on top which would mean that both incumbents could win despite Trump’s falling approval rating, down to 39% in Gallup, according to the political scientist.
At the same time, a GOP victory in Georgia is likely to frustrate Joe Biden’s legislative agenda on some issues, he believes, but suggested a few moderates from the Republican Party, including Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Ben Sasse, may still sign on to Biden’s “moderate” initiatives.
On the other hand, Biden “will have to watch out that he’s not too moderate, because a few progressives may frustrate him, especially in the House”, according to Tures. He adds, however, that “Trump [has] scared” both wings of the Democratic Party “into some sort of unity, which might last another 2-4 years, or longer if Trump or Trump Jr. tries to make a comeback”.
In case the contenders win with a razor-thin margin, that would demonstrate that Georgia has become a “purple”, i.e. a “moderate” state, he remarks.
Still, a win of both seats by the Democrats could change everything in Washington, as they will be able to reform the Senate’s rules and eliminate the filibuster, according to him. After that, the Democratic Party will be able to unilaterally pass legislation without Republican support, Grant says, stressing that “this would represent the first time since 2010 Democrats had this sort of power”.
However, on 9 November 2020, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from West Virginia told Fox News that he would not vote to kill the legislative filibuster if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate. Likewise, he promised to oppose packing the Supreme Court and criticised “defunding the police”, “Medicare for All”, and the “Green New Deal” initiatives. Should he deliver on his promise, Vice President-elect Harris will be unable to step in. Manchin has a record of opposing the Dems’ legislative initiatives before.
Supporters mingle before a rally with the US president in support of Republican incumbent senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue ahead of a Senate runoff in Dalton, Georgia on January 4, 2021. – President Donald Trump, still seeking ways to reverse his election defeat, and President-elect Joe Biden converge on Georgia on Monday for dueling rallies on the eve of runoff votes that will decide control of the US Senate. Trump, a day after the release of a bombshell recording in which he pressures Georgia officials to overturn his November 3 election loss in the southern state, is to hold a rally in the northwest city of Dalton in support of Republican incumbent senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. (Photo by SANDY HUFFAKER / AFP)
Georgia is Changing and GOP ‘Needs to Adjust to New Reality’
Meanwhile, US observers emphasise the enthusiasm of Georgian voters. The state’s early voting began on 14 December and has shown impressive results.
John Tures recalls that “normally”, special elections in America have had “pathetically low turnout”, because they are not held at the regular election time.
“In 2008, there were 2.1 million Georgians who voted in that special election, between Senator Saxby Chambliss and State Rep Jim Martin”, he points out. “Early voting before Election Day alone already surpassed that this year! I think it’s because there’s a lot at stake, there are two contests in the same state, and Senate control is on the line”.
Early voting data suggests that both runoffs would be “nail-biters”, according to The New York Times. Still, the newspaper has dropped the hint that this time the Democrats have a bigger share of the early-voting electorate than they did in November 2020. The question is whether the GOP will be able to outperform these results.
Previously, Republicans have had a substantial advantage in the state’s elections dating back to the 1990s, notes Chris Grant. However, it appears that the Democrats have steadily been gaining in their share of the statewide vote since 2006, according to him.
In December 2020, Politico placed an emphasis on the growing contest between “the Old South” and “the New South” in Georgia. According to the magazine, the immigrant population leaped by 84% between 2010 and 2018, “putting Georgia on the fast track to become majority-minority by 2030”. The state has seen an influx of young people of colour, who tend to vote for the Democratic Party. For its part, National Public Radio (NPR) also drew attention to a substantial surge in Black voter turnout in the state during the early voting in 2020.
“Georgia is changing – the United States is changing so it is incumbent on both political parties to change for their own survival”, Grant underscores, suggesting that the GOP has a chance to capture the imagination of many more voters if it instrumentalises the issues of racial and gender equality, environmental protection, and support of small businesses.
Sourse: sputniknews.com
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