Research shows how unrelated events with unique causes can nonetheless follow a similar pattern, when analyzed from a statistical point of view.
Roman emperors faced a statistical probability of violent death, which followed a pattern similar to one found in reliability engineering, including in handheld devices, says a study by Dr. Joseph Saleh, an aerospace engineer from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Analyzing data obtained from De Imperatoribus Romanis, a peer-reviewed online encyclopedia of Roman emperors, Saleh found that of 69 reviewed Roman emperors who ruled the Empire over several centuries, 43 (62 percent) suffered violent deaths by assassination, suicide or combat.
Saleh applied statistical methods frequently used to test the reliability of components in engineering, and modelled the typical length of time between an emperor’s ascension to the throne and their subsequent death. Surprisingly, seemingly random deaths of Roman rulers and seemingly random failures of components followed a similar pattern: when drawn on a board, the graph resembled a bathtub – a picture familiar to the engineers.
Chances were particularly high during the emperor’s first year of rule, but the risk steadily declined over the next seven years.
Historians usually view lives and deaths of each emperor as separate events, a Eurekalert report says, and it is unknown whether any attempt to discern a pattern has previously been made.
The full text of the study was published in the journal Palgrave Communications.
Sourse: sputniknews.com
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