On 28-30 January, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) held its 13th annual international conference entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade.” INSS researcher, Retired Brig. General Dr Meir Elran, has shed light on Israel’s strategic goals and outlined Israel’s vision of Russia’s role in the Middle East.
“War Games in the North” came as part of the INSS annual conference in the Smolarz Auditorium at Tel Aviv University with Israeli, American and Russian participants discussing various scenarios of a potential development of a conflict in the Middle East, involving Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah and Iran and global players – the United States and Russia.
The participants in the military simulation came to the conclusion that all of the actors of the hypothetical conflict – in which Israel initiates attacks on Lebanon and Syria – would opt for de-escalation as no one is interested in an all-out war.
One might ask whether the discussion indicates that Israel is bracing for new conflict in the region given the US-Iran row over Quds Force commander’s assassination and Tehran’s subsequent retaliatory strike, as well as Trump’s “deal of the century” that has already reverberated through the Arab world.
This is not the case, says retired Brig. General Dr Meir Elran, a senior research fellow and head of the Homeland Security Program and a co-head of the Society-Military Program of INSS: whatever experts are discussing at INSS annual gatherings is not necessarily based on immediate events, he says.
The security expert elaborates that “what Israel is basically trying to do is to keep the status quo”: “This is the most important strategic goal as far as Israel is concerned”, he adds.
“We are definitely not interested in any conflict and I think any conflict will be detrimental to the interests of Israel. We are doing whatever is possible to refrain from any major conflict”, Dr Elran says, referring to Israel’s Campaign Between Wars (CBW) doctrine aimed at proactively delaying wars and deterring enemies by constantly weakening their force buildup.
President Vladimir Putin visits Khmeimim Air Base in Syria
How Israel Sees Russia’s Role in the Middle East
While discussing a hypothetical conflict involving Israel, Lebanon and Syria the INSS panelists emphasised Russia’s role as key to de-escalating the situation given its working relations with the regional and external players.
Though refraining from calling Russia a major peace guarantor in the region, the retired brigadier general opines that Moscow is “being very involved presently in the situation in Syria”, which imposes on Russia certain “responsibilities” to prevent the Arab Republic from becoming a battleground for conflicts and hostilities between various state and non-state actors.
Dr Elran notes that currently the situation in Syria does not correspond to the basic interests of Israel given the presence of Iranians and their proxies in the region, in close proximity to Israel’s northern border.
According to the Israelis, Tehran has used the war in Syria to create a land corridor from Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria thus shortening the time and range for attacks on Israel. Tehran vehemently denies any military buildup in the region saying that it has provided military consulting services to the Syrians at the request of Damascus as part of the international fight against Daesh (ISIS/ISIL)*.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow on 30 January 2020
Russia and Israel Managed to Establish ‘Intimate’ Relations
According to Dr Elran, one of the very important factors is that Israel and Russia have established “very intimate and close relations” with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin holding meetings on regular basis and maintaining personal ties. “It’s an extremely positive thing for both countries and we also have the mechanism of deconfliction,” he remarks.
Dr Elran notes, however, that the track of Russo-Israeli relations is not without its bumps and occasional setbacks citing frictions between the countries over the incidental downing of an Ilyushin Il-20 by the Syrian air defences in 2018 which was partially blamed by Moscow on an Israeli Air Forces operation in the country’s airspace. For its part, Israel resolutely denied any involvement in the case.
But what if Benjamin Netanyahu steps down in the aftermath of 2 March snap general elections? Dr Elran believes that it will not affect working relations between Russia and Israel.
The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.
Sourse: sputniknews.com
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